Track sentiment across the AI supply chain. Test individual stocks with DCF research and assumptions you can inspect.
Subsector first. Company second. Assumptions in plain sight.
Follow the AI value chain. Compare each subsector’s Fear & Greed reading with its own market history.
Six ways of reaching one load: firm, variable, fuelled, delivered.
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A campus cutaway: shell, power, cooling, and who operates it.
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A rack cutaway, and the supply chain that produced what is in it.
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Physical AI: what senses, what computes, what moves.
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The demand side: who consumes what the racks produce.
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The gauge measures market sentiment, not intrinsic value or future returns. A low reading is not a buy signal; a high one is not a sell signal.
The headline reading ranks technical market measures for 18 chip stocks against their own history. The subsector baskets are tracked separately; 31 of 32 currently have scores, with geothermal awaiting enough history. They do not feed this headline. Higher means more greed, lower means more fear. Sentiment does not measure intrinsic value.
This is a published snapshot for the October 12, 2026 close, not a live feed.
Search subsectors, index notes and the research approach.
Explore all 32 subsectors and the ideas behind the research.
From chip design and grid power to cloud revenue and physical AI. Choose a basket to explore its subsectors, company examples and the operating assumptions behind the research.
Demand & compute · 4 subsectors
When does spending become earning?
Connect infrastructure spending to cloud demand, depreciation and incremental margins to test how much future cash flow the next campus can support.
Microsoft (MSFT) · Amazon (AMZN) · Alphabet (GOOGL)
Who keeps the compute margin?
Examine merchant GPUs and custom silicon through shipment mix, customer concentration and product cycles to judge how durable accelerator cash flows could be.
NVIDIA (NVDA) · Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) · Broadcom (AVGO)
Can the fleet earn its cost?
Test utilization, compute pricing, financing costs and hardware replacement against contracted revenue to see what remains after the GPUs are paid for.
CoreWeave (CRWV) · Nebius Group (NBIS) · IREN (IREN)
Does usage become durable revenue?
Follow paid adoption, retention and inference costs to assess whether application growth can compound into cash flow after the cost of serving users.
Palantir (PLTR) · ServiceNow (NOW) · Salesforce (CRM)
What does complexity pay?
Track design activity, licensing terms and royalty exposure to distinguish recurring software cash flow from revenue that depends on chips reaching production.
Synopsys (SNPS) · Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) · Arm Holdings (ARM)
What earns with every wafer?
Separate consumables from equipment subsystems, then test wafer activity, process intensity and customer qualifications as drivers of recurring demand and operating margins.
Entegris (ENTG) · MKS Instruments (MKSI) · Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT)
Which tool orders become cash?
Connect fab investment plans to shipments, service revenue and working capital, with cycle sensitivity built into assumptions about sustainable margins and cash conversion.
Applied Materials (AMAT) · Lam Research (LRCX) · ASML Holding (ASML)
Can each new fab earn its keep?
Balance utilization, process mix and wafer economics against construction costs and depreciation to assess the returns that manufacturing capacity must ultimately deliver.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) · GlobalFoundries (GFS) · United Microelectronics (UMC)
Scarcity today. Returns through the cycle?
Model capacity additions, product mix and inventory cycles to test whether stronger memory demand supports cash generation after reinvestment and pricing normalization.
Micron Technology (MU) · Sandisk (SNDK) · Seagate Technology (STX)
Who captures the packaging constraint?
Examine assembly capacity, yields and equipment intensity to distinguish revenue from scarce capability from cash flow consumed by the next expansion.
Amkor Technology (AMKR) · ASE Technology (ASX) · Onto Innovation (ONTO)
Does chip complexity extend the test?
Link test time, device complexity and equipment utilization to replacement demand, service income and the operating leverage embedded in each product cycle.
Teradyne (TER) · Cohu (COHU) · FormFactor (FORM)
More power. More silicon value?
Assess content per system, design wins and product mix while separating data center exposure from industrial cycles that also shape margins and cash flow.
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) · Analog Devices (ADI) · Texas Instruments (TXN)
Who earns from the next connection?
Trace bandwidth upgrades through component content, customer qualifications and manufacturing yields to test whether faster links translate into lasting margin and cash generation.
Coherent (COHR) · Lumentum (LITE) · Ciena (CIEN)
What is the fabric worth?
Study network architecture, attach rates and customer concentration to assess how switching, connectivity silicon and systems share the economics of larger clusters.
Arista Networks (ANET) · Credo Technology (CRDO) · Cisco Systems (CSCO)
What survives the hardware pass-through?
Look beyond system revenue to assembly margins, inventory financing and cash conversion, testing how much value remains after expensive components pass through.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) · Dell Technologies (DELL) · Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)
When does the rack get power?
Follow orders through production and installation, testing backlog quality, capacity spending and service revenue against the margins earned when electrical equipment ships.
Vertiv (VRT) · Eaton (ETN) · Hubbell (HUBB)
Who gets paid to move heat?
Examine cooling content, technology transitions and service attachment to judge whether denser racks create profitable demand after manufacturing investment and installation costs.
Modine Manufacturing (MOD) · AAON (AAON) · Trane Technologies (TT)
From signed lease to earning campus?
Audit tenant commitments, construction milestones and funding needs to test when a powered shell begins earning rent and what shareholders retain after financing.
Applied Digital (APLD) · Cipher Mining (CIFR) · Core Scientific (CORZ)
Does new capacity improve the rent roll?
Connect leasing, renewal economics and development yields to recurring cash generation, accounting for maintenance spending, power availability and the cost of funding expansion.
Equinix (EQIX) · Digital Realty (DLR) · Iron Mountain (IRM)
How much backlog becomes profit?
Inspect contract structure, labor capacity and project execution to test whether booked work converts into margins and cash without absorbing unexpected construction risk.
Quanta Services (PWR) · EMCOR Group (EME) · Comfort Systems USA (FIX)
What is speed to power worth?
Test equipment deliveries, fuel economics and service obligations to assess whether on-site generation earns attractive cash flow across temporary and permanent deployments.
Bloom Energy (BE) · GE Vernova (GEV) · Caterpillar (CAT)
Who captures the next megawatt?
Separate contracted revenue from market exposure, then test generation availability, fuel costs and maintenance spending against the cash flows supported by new electricity demand.
Vistra (VST) · Constellation Energy (CEG) · NRG Energy (NRG)
Who funds the grid expansion?
Follow interconnection commitments, capital plans and regulatory recovery to assess when new load becomes earnings and how much financing is required along the way.
American Electric Power (AEP) · Duke Energy (DUK) · Southern Company (SO)
What must happen before first power?
Distinguish fuel suppliers from reactor developers, grounding cash-flow scenarios in contracts, approvals, construction schedules and the capital required before commercial operation.
Cameco (CCJ) · BWX Technologies (BWXT) · NuScale Power (SMR)
What reaches the turbine—and the cash flow?
Trace incremental gas demand through production, transport contracts and pipeline capacity to distinguish commodity exposure from durable cash generation after required infrastructure spending.
Williams Companies (WMB) · Kinder Morgan (KMI) · EQT Corporation (EQT)
Can firm power scale economically?
Test resource productivity, project development costs and contracted output to assess whether dependable generation can support returns after construction and ongoing maintenance.
Ormat Technologies (ORA) · Fervo Energy (FRVO) · Brookfield Renewable Corporation (BEPC)
What earns beyond installed capacity?
Examine project economics, storage duration and equipment margins alongside grid access and policy assumptions to estimate cash generation from completed, operating assets.
First Solar (FSLR) · Nextpower (NXT) · Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS)
How much demand reaches the mine?
Place AI construction within broader end markets, then test production costs, supply additions and development spending across scenarios for long-term commodity cash flows.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) · Southern Copper (SCCO) · MP Materials (MP)
What earns when inference moves out?
Follow device adoption, silicon content and design wins to test incremental AI revenue against existing end-market exposure, development costs and sustainable margins.
Ambarella (AMBA) · Qualcomm (QCOM) · NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
Can better sensing pay its way?
Connect customer qualifications and production volumes to sensor economics, testing whether design wins become repeat orders and cash generation after development spending.
Cognex (CGNX) · Ouster (OUST) · Teledyne Technologies (TDY)
Who earns when intelligence moves?
Examine motion content, industrial demand and aftermarket revenue to assess whether automation adds durable cash flow beyond the underlying capital spending cycle.
Regal Rexnord (RRX) · Rockwell Automation (ROK) · Parker Hannifin (PH)
When does a working machine scale?
Test deployment economics, customer payback and manufacturing requirements to distinguish promising demonstrations from businesses capable of funding growth and producing repeatable cash flow.
Symbotic (SYM) · Tesla (TSLA) · Mobileye (MBLY)
The index tells you where sentiment stands. The DCF asks whether modeled future cash flows justify today's price. Every deep dive works through the operating assumptions, the cash flows and what would change the conclusion.
Subsector gauges rank five market measures against each basket's history. They surface extremes worth investigating and show when one part of the chain diverges from another.
Stock-by-stock DCF work makes revenue, margins, capital intensity and discount rates explicit. The point is to expose the assumptions that matter, not hide them behind a target price.
Each company can benefit from AI spending and still be a poor investment at the wrong price. The research follows the dollars from the physical bottleneck to shareholder cash flow.
Identify the part of the AI stack the business actually supplies and the capacity constraint that matters.
Separate volume, price, margin and capital spending assumptions instead of collapsing them into one growth rate.
Show what changes under stronger and weaker cases, and where the market price sits across them.
Update the thesis when earnings, industry data or the stock price change the underlying question.
Public posts show the question. Member research will show the working: company-level DCF models, explicit assumptions and what changed as the thesis develops.
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